Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.367752 0.427370 0.492059 0.567269 0.652106 0.744634 0.852973
2025-05-11 0.286967 0.365257 0.456731 0.570772 0.708349 0.868134 1.066862
2025-05-18 0.213729 0.297817 0.403465 0.544291 0.725219 0.947830 1.240144
2025-05-25 0.156401 0.239298 0.351440 0.511214 0.729458 1.013172 1.405171
2025-06-01 0.120939 0.203026 0.322392 0.503629 0.765797 1.124271 1.642853
2025-06-08 0.092659 0.171161 0.293999 0.492671 0.796545 1.232597 1.891291
2025-06-15 0.076027 0.153876 0.284388 0.508116 0.868000 1.407057 2.252799
2025-06-22 0.056365 0.126482 0.253391 0.485149 0.878541 1.494930 2.500720
2025-06-29 0.042829 0.106584 0.231026 0.472560 0.903922 1.608719 2.800980
2025-07-06 0.032140 0.089095 0.209191 0.456965 0.922138 1.713639 3.099530
2025-07-13 0.026348 0.080532 0.202898 0.469137 0.990811 1.909358 3.564647
2025-07-20 0.020718 0.070352 0.190896 0.468054 1.035374 2.069390 3.987082
2025-07-27 0.016550 0.062668 0.183240 0.476107 1.101766 2.280804 4.528394
2025-08-03 0.013088 0.055489 0.174978 0.481543 1.164534 2.493917 5.095892
2025-08-10 0.009378 0.045530 0.156754 0.460593 1.170290 2.602268 5.487745
2025-08-17 0.006467 0.036450 0.137797 0.433463 1.158490 2.675794 5.823796
2025-08-24 0.004834 0.031237 0.128292 0.428130 1.194675 2.849182 6.366854
2025-08-31 0.003542 0.026477 0.118452 0.419618 1.222316 3.008545 6.898398
2025-09-07 0.002882 0.024350 0.116790 0.433959 1.307648 3.298889 7.716743
2025-09-14 0.001982 0.019872 0.104732 0.414598 1.305949 3.401550 8.164020
2025-09-21 0.001409 0.016713 0.096290 0.404162 1.325543 3.553439 8.726827
2025-09-28 0.000975 0.013875 0.087738 0.390980 1.335569 3.684644 9.257317
2025-10-05 0.000777 0.012731 0.086328 0.402023 1.414516 3.984058 10.173979